US consumer sentiment edged down to near a record low in October as rising prices linked to the Middle East conflict weighed on households’ views of the economy, a University of Michigan survey showed on Friday, with affordability emerging as a key issue ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.The university’s Consumer Sentiment Index slipped to 48.0 this month from a final reading of 48.1 in September.Economists polled by Reuters had expected a reading of 46.3, which was also the preliminary estimate for October.October’s reading was the second-lowest on record, following the all-time low of 44.8 recorded in May, shortly after the Iran war began.“Purchasing power continues to dominate consumer views of the economy,” said Joanne Hsu, director of the Surveys of Consumers. “Sentiment is now 10% below a year ago and 15% less than February, just prior to the Iran conflict.”
Independent voters report weaker sentiment
The survey’s findings coincided with political polling showing that voters held a dim view of the economy and President Donald Trump’s and the Republican Party’s handling of it, Reuters reported.Millions of Americans have already cast early ballots ahead of the November 3 midterm elections, which will determine control of Congress for the final two years of Trump’s term.Polls indicated Republicans were likely to lose control of the House of Representatives, with the Senate also potentially at stake. Trump’s approval rating in a Reuters/Ipsos poll stood at a record low, amid a surge in fuel prices following his decision to attack Iran in late February.The University of Michigan survey found that the decline in sentiment was driven by respondents who identified as independents, a group that includes swing voters.Their sentiment score fell to 42.4 in October from 47.7 in September, putting it just above May’s record low of 40.6. Sentiment scores among Democrats and Republicans improved.The survey also found that more independents and Republicans were citing high prices as a strain on their personal finances. Since January, the number of independents reporting inflation pressures as a financial burden had risen by 27%, while the figure among Republicans had increased by 52%. Among Democrats, the increase was 15%.Households with little or no exposure to the stock market had also increasingly cited high prices as a financial burden compared with the beginning of the year. The stock market had recently climbed rapidly amid enthusiasm for investments in artificial intelligence.
Inflation expectations remain elevated
The survey’s measure of consumers’ expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 4.7% in October from 4.6% in September. The measure had stood at 3.4% in February, before the US-Israeli war with Iran began.Expectations for inflation over the next five years increased to 3.5% from 3.4% in September and 3.2% in March, shortly after the conflict began.In an accompanying report, Hsu said persistently elevated inflation expectations in the period following the Covid-19 pandemic posed a risk to the Federal Reserve’s efforts to bring inflation down to its 2% target. The target had remained unmet for more than five years, she wrote.“Consumers broadly expect inflation to accelerate, and this year’s increases in inflation expectations are not limited to one part of the political spectrum,” Hsu said.She also cautioned that relatively resilient consumer spending, despite negative views of the economy, required close attention. If households were spending now to avoid expected price increases in the future, bringing inflation down could become more difficult, she added.
Federal Reserve decision due next week
Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to meet in Washington next week. Despite recent inflation readings that came in higher than expected, they were broadly expected to keep the policy interest rate unchanged at 3.75%-4.00%.The Fed had raised the rate by a quarter of a percentage point in September. Most officials had indicated a need for higher interest rates, while key policymakers had also expressed willingness to wait for more data before making their next move.